社会融资规模与实体经济增长：长期均衡与短期动态关系

Aggregate Social Financing Scale and Real Economic Growth: The Long-term Equilibrium and Short-term Dynamic Relationship

关键词:  社会融资规模；融资结构；实体经济增长；产业结构升级；VAR模型

Key words:  Financing to Real Economy；Financing Structure；Real Economic Growth；Upgrading of Industrial Structure；VAR Model

摘要:

本文利用中国2012Q1-2017Q2的时间序列数据，构建VAR模型实证研究了社会融 资规模和融资结构对实体经济影响的长期均衡与短期动态关系。研究结果表明：社会融资规 模、融资结构与实体经济增长、产业结构升级之间均存在长期均衡关系，社会融资规模扩张和 融资结构调整均有助于实体经济增长和产业结构升级，且其推动作用都呈现逐年增强的变化 趋势。长期内直接融资对实体经济增长及产业结构升级的正向促进作用比间接融资更大，短期 内间接融资对实体经济增长和产业结构升级的影响作用更大。因此，要促进实体经济稳定增长 和加快产业转型升级，不仅需要持续不断的扩大社会融资规模，还需要进一步优化融资结构。

Abstract:

Based on the time series data from 2012Q1 to 2017Q2 in China，this paper builds VAR model to empirically study the long-term equilibrium and short-term dynamic relationship between aggregate financing and financing structure and real economic growth. The results indicate that there is a long-term equilibrium relationship between financing to real economy, financing structure and real economic growth, upgrading of industrial structure. The expansion of financing to real economy and the adjustment of financing structure can contribute to real economic growth and industrial structure upgrading, and their facilitation is increasing year by year. In the long term, the impact of direct financing on real economic growth and industrial structure upgrading is bigger than that of indirect financing. On the contrary, the latter is bigger than the former in the short term. So not only need to expand the financing scale of real economy but also further optimize the financing structure to promote the growth of real economy and speed the upgrading of industrial structure.