风险监管对普惠金融供给影响的实证分析 —以村镇银行为例

Empirical Analysis of the Impact of Risk Supervision on Inclusive Financial Supply

关键词:  普惠金融；供给；风险监管

Key words:  Inclusive Finance；Supply；Risk Supervision

摘要:

普惠金融是供给侧改革的重要环节，本文围绕国务院《推进普惠金融发展规划》 所确立的三大目标建立了衡量银行业普惠金融供给的IFS评价体系，运用因子分析消除风险监 管指标的相关性和冗余性，运用广义差分法等实证分析风险监管对普惠金融供给的影响。本文 研究表明：村镇银行盈利性和集中度监管导向促进普惠金融供给，不良率的上升成为制约普惠 金融供给的重要因素，拨备、资本和流动性还存在一定的释放和运用空间。后续工作中应督导 村镇银行用好用足呆账核销等政策，合理确定流动性和风险抵补指标的区间，同时建议从银行 业和监管两个角度来设计普惠金融不良贷款“容忍度”的政策体系，对普惠金融供给能力较强 的银行信用风险给予更多的监管容忍度，共同推进银行业普惠金融供给的提升。

Abstract:

In this paper, we established IFS assessment system of inclusive finance based on rural banks and validated its effectiveness. Then we eliminated the relevance and redundancy of risk supervision indicators through factor analysis. Following the con-integration test and generalized difference method, we estimate the impact that risk supervision made on inclusive finance supply. This paper shows that profitability index mutually promotes the inclusive finance supply. However, the rise of bad loan ratio performs constraint action. Moreover, the provision、capital and liquidity are remained to be released and utilized. It required the CBRC to implement the policy of bad loan tolerance, to accelerate the tempo of bad loan disposal，to make good use of the writing-off policies, to set reasonable liquidity buffer, and to push inclusive finance forward.