2008年以来中国出口竞争力的变化趋势和原因分析

The Export Competitiveness of China since 2008: The Trend and Reasons

关键词:  出口；竞争力；外需；汇率

Key words:  Exports; Competitive; Foreign Demand; Exchange Rate

摘要:

近年来我国出口额同比增速有所放缓，引发了社会对于我国出口竞争力是否下降 的担忧。采用多个出口竞争力指标和156种工业制成品出口比较优势指数的分析表明，我国出 口竞争力总体上得以保持，但是2014年以来在高科技含量出口商品方面竞争力有所下降。采用 月度时间序列数据的实证分析表明，外需疲软和人民币实际有效汇率升值对我国出口增速的放 缓有较大影响，但是出口竞争力的变化原因更为复杂，技术、金融、结构、税收政策等多方面 的因素都发挥了作用。这种影响因素的差异解释了为什么我国出口同比增速持续下降的同时， 出口竞争优势总体上得以保持。这些结论对于改善出口形势和提升出口竞争力具有明确的政策 启示。

Abstract:

In recent years, the growth rate of China’s exports has decreased significantly. The indicators of exports competitiveness and 156 manufacturing merchandises relative advantages show that China’s export advantages are kept, but the advantage of high-technology merchandises has declined in 2014. Empirical analyses indicate that the decline of foreign demand and RMB appreciation has influenced the growth rate of exports significantly, while the competitiveness of China’s exports is influenced by more factors. The results have important implications for export policies.