美国国债收益率曲线倒挂与经济前景展

U.S. Treasury yield Curve Inversion and Economic Prospects

关键词:  收益率曲线；倒挂；经济前景

Key words:  Yield Curve;Inversion;Economic Prospects

摘要:

美国债收益率曲线自2018年底走平到目前出现的倒挂现象引发了市场和政策当局 的广泛关注。本文首先从收益率曲线的基本概念出发，回顾了历史上美国债券收益率曲线和经 济衰退之间的关系。研究发现，美国国债收益率曲线倒挂是预测美国经济衰退的一个较为可 靠的先行指标。然而，由于危机以来美联储货币政策操作模式已发生显著变化，此次收益率曲 线倒挂尽管仍可作为预测美国经济衰退的重要参考指标，但在可靠程度上可能会面临较大不 确定性。同时，又因美国目前的经济基本面总体向好，因此短期内发生经济衰退的可能性并不 大。最后，由于目前特朗普政府政策对美联储货币政策立场存在倒逼机制，因此未来政府政策 的不确定性或将成为左右美国经济走向的关键因素。

Abstract:

TThe flattening and inversion of the U.S. Treasuries yield curve in recent time has attracted a wide range of attention from the markets and policy makers. This paper begins with reviewing the basic concept of yield curve and the historic relationship between the yield curve of U.S. treasuries and economic recession. It found that an inverted yield curve of U.S. treasuries is a reliable leading indicator for predicting recession. However, as the Federal Reserve has modified its methods for conducting monetary policy operation in some significant ways since last global financial crisis, while an inverted yield curve may still be a feasible index for forecasting the economic recession in the U.S, its reliability may be compromised to some extent. Since the economic fundamentals of the United States are generally in good shape at the moment, the possibility of a short-term U.S. economic recession remains moderate. However, given that the Federal Reserve may be obliged to tailor its own policy to accommodate the outcome of the economic policy of the Trump administration，the uncertainty in the policies of the Trump administration may be a key factor in determining the future course of the U.S. economy.